On Peace

As the 2021 U.N. General Assembly begins amid a host of global crises, USIP’s Corinne Graff says this year’s theme of resilience must “deal not just with the symptoms of these emergencies, but the root causes as well” and that effective governance is “key to building resilience against many of the global challenges we face today.”

Amid the fallout from the Taliban’s sudden takeover, USIP’s William Byrd warns that Afghanistan’s economy faces a catastrophic outlook if action isn’t taken — adding that “the Afghan people and the economy have a lot farther to fall than they did the previous time the Taliban were in charge.”

Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely top the agenda during Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s meeting with President Biden. But USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says the talks will also serve as a “relational reset … this will really be about setting a tone between these two new leaders.”

Ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-awaited visit to Washington, USIP’s Donald Jensen says many in D.C. “see the [Ukrainian] fight against corruption as a key benchmark” in determining the future of U.S. assistance, including for Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia.

USIP’s Tegan Blaine says we must be cognizant of how efforts to reduce climate change can exacerbate instability and conflict, as the resources needed for a greener global economy “are in places where the countries are already politically fragile” and higher demand adds more stress to already burdened institutions.

While cooperation on war legacy issues topped the agenda during U.S. Defense Secretary Austin’s recent trip to Vietnam, USIP’s Brian Harding says the deepening U.S-Vietnam relationship is, in part, meant “to balance what they’re concerned about on [Vietnam’s] northern border” with China.

Nuclear diplomacy has long been a bilateral affair between the United States and Russia. But with China, North Korea and possibly Iran emerging as nuclear threats, USIP’s Bill Taylor says, “The number of actors is a threat to stability” requiring a new framework for addressing issues of nuclear security.

As China steps up its engagement in Africa amid lagging vaccination rates and tensions in Ethiopia, USIP’s Joseph Sany says U.S. policy must avoid a narrow, competitive mindset: “[China] is doing what a major superpower does … [the United States] must address African interests, not impose American interests.”

While many students learn about conflict through the lens of violence, USIP’s Megan Chabalowski says the Institute’s Peace Teachers program offers a more nuanced, positive alternative: “It can be really eye-opening for students to see that [peace] is something really practical that you can work toward.”

With the world’s fifth largest population, a nuclear-armed military, an important role in Afghanistan and a close relationship with China, Pakistan is vital to U.S. interests. Although there have been periods of turmoil, “Both countries must have a relationship and, ostensibly, share some interests,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

Myanmar’s military expected to reclaim control quickly after February’s coup. But USIP’s Priscilla Clapp says that “when the civilian protests persisted beyond a month, the military began to panic … As a result, the country has descended into chaos and widespread indiscriminate violence.” 

As Lebanon teeters on the edge of total state collapse, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says very little stands in the way of malign actors and possibly a new migrant crisis in the region: “The lights are truly blinking red … if the army collapses, then, honestly, I think all bets are off.”

Despite numerous points of tension, Presidents Biden and Putin characterized this week’s meeting in positive terms. Now, “the administration is trying to decide to what extent to cooperate with the Kremlin … and to what extent to push back,” said USIP’s Donald Jensen ahead of the summit.

With pivotal elections scheduled for October, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says Iraqis “want democracy, they’re fighting for it with their lives.” Meanwhile, Iraq is still grappling with simmering discontent among many citizens and the destabilizing role of foreign powers. https://www.usip.org/on-peace

Troop withdrawal is ahead of schedule, but that’s “proving to be bad news for the overall political situation … and a setback for peace talks,” says USIP’s Scott Worden. While it seems likely that fighting will ramp up, if another military stalemate occurs there could be “a ripe opportunity for talks.”   After a brief hiatus, On Peace is available again on a weekly basis. Explore more episodes: https://www.usip.org/on-peace

Hello On-Peace Listeners.  Please note that after 160 episodes, the On-Peace podcast will be taking a brief hiatus. We look forward to bringing you more great analysis from our incredible team of USIP experts soon. In the meantime, thank you as always for tuning into On-Peace.

As Israel heads toward a fourth elections in two years, USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says the incoming Biden administration will need to engage in a “balancing act” to “navigate this situation and not start off with a rocky, tempestuous relationship.”

Home to about 2 billion people, South Asia has become a strategic focal point for China’s growing global influence. USIP’s Jacob Stokes says to properly counterbalance Beijing in the region, the United States should focus “less about responding to China … and more engaging with the states of South Asia.”

Last weekend’s legislative elections proved to be “by no means fair or credible,” says USIP’s Steve Hege. To get the country back on track, Hege says a new U.S. administration will “have to work with the opposition and generate within the Venezuelan people some degree of belief in electoral politics.”

With news of a breakthrough in Afghan peace talks, USIP’s Scott Smith warns that future troop withdrawal should “switch from a time-based deadline approach to a conditions-based approach” because if the Taliban believe withdrawal is inevitable, “they have no incentive to compromise.”