Hidden Forces

In Episode 345 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vance Spencer and Michael Anderson about whether we are in a new crypto bull market. Mike and Vance are the founders of Framework Ventures, one of the largest venture capital firms in crypto. They have been on the podcast several times before to discuss their investment outlook for crypto, particularly decentralized finance and blockchain-based gaming. You can easily find those previous appearances in the related tab on this week’s episode page. In this end-of-year episode, Demetri asks the Framework team about their 2024 crypto investment outlook and whether they think the recent price run-up marks the beginning of a new crypto bull market. They discuss the anticipated introductions of the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the Ethereum roadmap and recent upgrades to its protocol, blockchain-based gaming, regulation, and much more. Because this conversation deals with investing, nothing that we say on this podcast can or should be viewed as financi

In Episode 344 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with oil analyst and researcher Rory Johnston about what’s driving the fall in oil prices and how likely it is to continue. Rory shares his thoughts on investor positioning, growth in US oil production, recent M&A activity in the oil sector, OPEC production cuts, geopolitical risk in Guyana, as well as in the Strait of Hormuz, and much more. Today’s episode was originally recorded as a live Q&A for members of the Hidden Forces Genius Community. If you’re interested in learning more about the Genius community, our private dinners, in-person events, and how to become a member, you can do that at HiddenForces.io/Subscribe, where you can also subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS

In Episode 343 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Diana Pasulka, a professor of religious studies who writes and teaches about the history of the Catholic tradition and new religious movements. Her work in this field has led her to study UFOs, or what we now call Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), about which she has written two books: American Cosmic and Encounters, both of which form the basis for much of this conversation. In the first hour of their conversation, Pasulka and Kofinas discuss why so many people with reputable track records and prestigious positions in academia, government, and the private sector have devoted and continue to devote their lives to investigating this phenomenon. They also discuss what it is that is being alleged by people who claim to have knowledge of the UAP and UFO phenomenon and what sorts of explanations make sense in the context of what we know to be true today. The second hour of their conversation is devoted to answering two fundamental questions. The f

In Episode 342 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rudy Havenstein, the owner and operator of a satirical Twitter account that regularly mocks Western policymakers and politicians for their endless wars, corporate bailouts, and tone-deaf public statements about the economy, American foreign policy, and the state of American democracy. Demetri asked Rudy on the podcast in order to understand what he feels has gone wrong in America and what it would take for voters like him to feel that the country is moving in the right direction. This conversation is meant to be accessible to anyone, irrespective of your beliefs, preconceptions, or pre-existing knowledge about the subjects that Kofinas and Havenstein explore in this episode. The first hour is devoted to understanding Rudy’s perspective, how he grew up, his experience of America as a young man in the 1960s and 70s, how the country has changed in the intervening decades, and what his central grievances are against the ruling class and the government

In Episode 341 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tom Wheeler, the former Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the author of the recently published book “Techlash: Who Makes the Rules in the Digital Gilded Age?” Wheeler and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation discussing Tom’s time leading the FCC, what he learned during his time there  about the policy-making process and the challenges of regulating Big Tech, how industrial era regulations and agencies are ill-suited for overseeing today’s 21st century digital economy, and what’s at stake if we don’t get it right. In the second hour of their conversation, Tom and Demetri get into specific policy and regulatory proposals for dealing with both social media and artificial intelligence by challenging some of the false dichotomies and tribal biases that have dominated this conversation in recent years. They look at ways of incentivizing social media platforms to produce better quality information that reduces the in

In Episode 340 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Zach Abraham, the Principal and Chief Investment Officer of Bulwark Capital Management and the host of the Know Your Risk Radio Program. Zach and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing Zach’s approach to investing, where he thinks we are in the economic cycle, and why he believes we continue to see a disconnect between underlying economic fundamentals and asset prices. In the second hour, Demetri and Zach reflect on the economic, political, and cultural changes that they’ve experienced in their lives, how these changes reflect (and are reflected in) some of the policy choices that have led us to this point in developed countries, how these changes affect Zach’s economic outlook, and how they inform his philosophy as an investor, a parent, and a citizen. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the

In Episode 339 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Nathaniel Whittemore, host of the AI Breakdown for a timely conversation about the latest news surrounding the firing of OpenAI’s CEO and co-founder Sam Altman. This was recorded on Monday, November 20th as a Live Q&A for members of our Genius community that we opened up to our newsletter subscribers. Nathaniel and Demetri discussed what is known thus far about the reasons behind Sam Altman’s firing, why it’s being described as a "coup," who the various factions are, and how much of this has to do with concerns around AI safety vs. accelerationism. We also discuss the opportunity this creates for OpenAI’s largest shareholder (Microsoft), the implications for the AI industry, as well as the largest players in the space for AI foundation models, and much, much more. You can subscribe to our free newsletter at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/.  If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community,

In Episode 338 of Hidden Forces, speaks with Dr. Edward Luttwak about American grand strategy and the logic of war. Dr. Luttwak is an author and consultant to governments and companies around the world and is known for his work on grand strategy, military strategy and history, and international relations. Luttwak and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the logic of war and the dimensions of strategy, how the nature of a nation state’s political system influences its grand strategic objectives, and what American grand strategy is and should be given the strategic challenges the United States faces in the 21st century. In the second hour, the conversation shifts to China given U.S. President Biden’s and Xi Jinping’s recent in-person meeting at the APEC summit in San Francisco. Edward Luttwak explains why he believes that it would be a very bad idea if China attempted to take Taiwan by force, how it would find itself at war with the United States and an assortment of regional and inter

In Episode 337 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jerry Colonna, the co-founder and CEO of the executive coaching and leadership development company Reboot, the host of the Reboot Podcast, and the author of the recently published book “Reunion: Leadership and the Longing to Belong.” Demetri got to know Jerry during their first interview together after the publication of Jerry’s last book on the subject of leadership and the art of growing up, in which he explained how the lessons of leadership are at their core, lessons in humanity—that the process of becoming a better leader and the radical self-inquiry that it requires, ultimately makes us better human beings. In their second conversation together and in his latest book Reunion, Jerry Colonna builds on those insights to help us move beyond the inner world of becoming better humans toward the outer worlds of inclusion and belonging that seem to be missing in so many people’s lives and in our world today. In their second conversation together and

In Episode 336 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Google DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman about the containment problem and the AI dilemma that he outlines in his book, “The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma." Mustafa Suleyman and Demetri discuss the rapid advancement and proliferation of Artificial Intelligence and Synthetic Biology, why this revolution is going to be fundamentally different from past periods of rapid technological change, and what can be done to solve the containment problem and prevent some of the more catastrophic outcomes from occurring, while still reaping the benefits of this next wave of innovation. The first hour of this episode is spent exploring how these AI systems work, how they learn, and how they perceive the world, as well as why they are so difficult to contain. And yet, we need to contain them if we want to avoid some of the more catastrophic outcomes like synthetically engineered pandemics, pandemics of public co

In Episode 335 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marshall Kosloff. Marshall is the host of The Realignment and Arsenal of Democracy podcasts and is a media fellow at Hudson Institute. Marshall and Demetri spend the first hour applying Marshall’s realignment framework to U.S. foreign policy in light of the recent developments in Israel and the potential for a destabilizing regional war with Iran. In the second hour, they discuss Artificial Intelligence (AI) and social media regulation, the 2024 election, and the risk that we may be sleepwalking into a new world war that would devastate the global economy and put people’s lives at risk in ways that we haven’t experienced since the late 1930s and 1940s. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. You can listen to The Realignment here and Arsenal of Democracy here.  If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces

In Episode 334 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with famed historian of American Foreign policy Walter Russell Mead about the evolving war in the Middle East and why we are living through the most dangerous period in international affairs since the 1930s. Professor Mead is a Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at the Hudson Institute, the Global View Columnist at The Wall Street Journal, and the James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College in New York. How have we found ourselves on the cusp of another war in the Middle East when the Biden administration’s explicit goal coming into office in 2020 was to get the United States out of this region so it could focus on China? This is the question that Mead and Kofinas look to answer in the first hour of their conversation. They also discuss the historical parallels and differences between the present moment and previous periods of immense danger in the international system, the apocalyptic strain in America

In Episode 333 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Brenes, the Director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy at Yale University who recently authored an article for Foreign Affairs about the U.S. defense industrial base titled “How America Broke Its War Machine.” Michael and Demetri discuss the state of the U.S. defense industrial base, American military readiness, and the effect that great-power competition and the expansion and scope of U.S. military involvement in active conflicts overseas could have on the nation’s political stability. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel

In Episode 332 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical analyst and forecaster Kamran Bokhari. Kamran is the Senior Director of the Eurasian Security & Prosperity Portfolio at the New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy and has served at the U.S. State Department and as a Senior Consultant with the World Bank. The subjects of today’s conversation concern the escalating violence ignited by last weekend’s brutal attacks on Israeli civilians by Hamas, as well as the Israeli Defense Forces’ ongoing counteroffensive and bombing of the Gaza Strip. Kamran and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the attacks, what we know about their original scope and intention, what role Iran may have played in helping plan the attacks, and whether or not we can expect Hezbollah to open a second front of attack in the north of Israel, as well as other potential pathways of escalation that could rope in the United States and turn this into a larger, regional conflict. In the seco

In Episode 331 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan and Mike Green after a week of turmoil in the bond market that saw a dramatic repricing of long-term government debt, raising debt servicing costs for the US government and sending yields on 10-year Treasury bonds to nearly 5%. Demetri, Andy, and Mike spend the first hour of their conversation trying to make sense of the recent sell-off, as well as what the implications of these higher long-term interest rates will be for the economy and asset markets. The second hour is dedicated to discussing the risk-reward calculus for investors who are trying to decide whether or not they want to use this opportunity to add bonds to their portfolios, in what amount, over what duration, and what the risks and opportunities are of doing so given the continued uncertainty about the direction of interest rates and inflation. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at H

In Episode 330 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Henry Olsen, author of “Working Class Republican” and “The Four Faces of the Republican Party,” about where the United States and other western democratic countries find themselves politically today, the sources of populism’s broad, international appeal, and why he believes that we are living through the kind of political realignment that hasn’t happened for almost a century. Henry is also a columnist for the Washington post and the host of the weekly podcast “Beyond the Polls” where he speaks with leading political journalists and analysts about American politics and its presidential and congressional races. Demetri and Henry spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the history of democratic politics and how we got to where are today where so many Americans and others Westerners no longer feel at home in their own parties and increasingly feel like their countries and the people who govern them are unresponsive to their needs, incompe

In Episode 329 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Dylan Patel, a semiconductor and A.I. analyst and the founder of boutique Semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, about how U.S. semiconductor export controls are failing and what the U.S. can do about it. Dylan and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation going over Huawei’s groundbreaking new Kirin 9000s chipset produced by Chinese semiconductor foundry SMIC and what it tells us about the progress that China’s domestic chip industry has made in the year since the U.S. Commerce Department implemented a series of targeted updates to its semiconductor industry export controls. This also includes a discussion about the military and commercial implications of China’s progress for America’s strategic competition with the People’s Republic. In the second hour, Kofinas and Patel focus their attention on how exactly China’s domestic chip industry has managed to make so much progress despite the stated goals of the U.S. Commerce

In Episode 328 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations where he specializes in global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. Brad has also served in multiple Democrat administrations as a senior advisor to the U.S. Trade Representative, as deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department, and as a director for international economics on the staff of the National Economic and the National Security Councils. Brad and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing what Brad has described as “the new geopolitics of global finance,” how the political and national security assumptions and priorities that were taken for granted during the unipolar period are undergoing a series of transformations, and how these transformations are increasingly informing economic policymaking and driving changes in the global econ

In Episode 327 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Diana Choyleva in what was originally recorded as a live Q&A for members of our Genius Community. The subject of the Q&A is the latest state of US-China relations with an emphasis on some of the most recent headlines related Huawei’s latest 5G phone with its domestically produced 7nm chip, China’s naval exercises in the pacific, as well as some of ongoing headlines around the state of its economy. During the introduction, Demetri makes the case for why China’s rise poses a threat to the liberal world and why our response to that threat needs to be situated within a larger political and economic movement that reconstitutes civic power in the democratic institutions of government which are the birthright of every American. Diana Choyleva has been kind enough to offer Hidden Forces listeners a discount to her Enodo Economics course on US-China relations, which explores many of the issues that we tackle in today’s Q&A and that provides a ro

In Episode 326 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Alex Velez-Green, the fmr. National Security Advisor to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley, who helped staff the senator on the Armed Services Committee and advised him on matters related to strengthening deterrence against China, including U.S. conventional and nuclear force structure and posture. Alex and Demetri discuss the perilous situation in which the U.S. now finds itself in the Pacific, how it got here, and what is required to ready the U.S. military for a war against China in the next few years, and if we are lucky, deter it altogether. The first hour of their conversation is dedicated to a discussion about the serious risks that the United States military currently faces in the pacific and why there is a real chance that the People’s Liberation Army will be able to defeat U.S. forces in a fight over Taiwan. This includes a discussion about Chinese intentions and the advancements that China’s military has made in the last several years, the consequ