Analysen Und Diskussionen Über China

5 October 2016, with Zhang JiepingThese are tough times for independent media in China: Censorship and controls have increased considerably in recent years. The pressure is also felt in Hongkong despite the territory’s greater freedoms. Still, several media start-ups have sprung up in Hongkong recently. One of the biggest is the online platform “Initium”. Within a year it has attracted more than two million regular readers although the site quickly got blocked on the mainland. Chief Editor Zhang Jieping says there’s a huge appetite for independent journalism. In the new Merics Experts podcast she talks about how to survive in a challenging political environment while sticking to her journalistic principles.

2. September 2016, mit Mikko HuotariBeim G20-Gipfel in Hangzhou soll globales Wachstum gefördert werden. Gastgeber China setzt dabei auf globale Infrastrukturinvestitionen. Auch aus Eigeninteresse, sagt Mikko Huotari, Leiter des Programmbereichs Internationale Beziehungen bei Merics. Die G20, so Pekings Hoffnung, könnten der chinesischen Seidenstraßen-Initiative den Ritterschlag geben. Aber auch Chinas Reform-Agenda rückt in den Fokus: „Glaubwürdigkeit als G20-Führungskraft kann Peking nur erlangen, wenn es glaubwürdig an den Reformen zuhause weiterarbeitet.“ Mikko Huotari im Merics Experts Podcast.

4 August 2016, with Richard McGregorFor all its problems, China is an incredibly successful country and still has a lot of growth potential, says Richard McGregor, visiting fellow at George Washington University. All gloomy scenarios about economic or political collapse have proved wrong so far. So, what if Xi Jinping succeeds in restructuring the economy and strengthening the Communist Party? China would emerge as a much more powerful country, says McGregor. However, there’s nothing in the party’s DNA that suggests China would be more accommodating internationally or more liberal domestically. That’s Richard McGregor in the latest Merics Experts podcast. 

26 July 2016, with You JiXi Jinping has used military reforms to strengthen his command over the People’s Liberation Army. And he’s using personal connections, some dating back to his childhood years, to fill central positions within the military, says professor You Ji of Macau University. On strategy, Xi is moving away from his predecessors’ approach. China is now preparing to project power well beyond its borders, catch up with the U.S. and achieve “Great Power Status” built upon military strength. That’s You Ji in the latest Merics Experts podcast.

22 July 2016, with Victor ShihFor years China was led by consensus – factions in the upper echelons of power were carefully calibrated to keep a balance. But with Xi Jinping all that has changed, says Victor Shih of the University of California, San Diego. Since Xi’s faction within the Central Committee is still rather small, he established a number of new leading small groups to strengthen his influence on policy making. At the 19th party congress next year Xi could now try to shrink the size of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee to obtain absolute power within the CCP. That’s Victor Shih in the latest Merics Experts Podcast.

7 July 2016, with Barry NaughtonExpectations for market oriented reforms were running high after the CCP’s 3rd plenum in 2013. But three years on Barry Naughton of the University of California, San Diego, is disappointed: Reform plans have come to nothing; economic problems got worse; the centralization of power has led to paralysis among bureaucrats. Xi Jinping is “political down to his fingernails” but not an economic thinker, says Naughton: “Xi is attached to the long term objective of reform but has only the weakest of attachments to the practical measures that need to be taken to get there.” Now the leadership could read the Brexit vote as another indication that global free markets and institutions are unreliable and unattractive. That’s Barry Naughton in the new Merics Experts podcast.

01.07.2016The speed with which Xi Jinping has introduced stronger controls on society has surprised many China watchers. The Xi administration has been “extraordinarily successful” in controlling and shaping political communication especially online says Anthony Saich of Harvard Kennedy School: “If I was an authoritarian leader somewhere else in the world, I would want to learn lessons from China.” Moreover, laws constraining foreign NGOs while encouraging domestic charity work for causes close to the CCP’s priorities tend to further reduce space for association and new ideas. 

Xi Jinping has centralized power in China to unprecedented levels: he has sidelined both the prime minister and the state council and is trying to control everything himself says distinguished Harvard historian Roderick MacFarquhar. Xi might have – like Mao Zedong long before him - a vision and a sense of direction for China but he lacks the authority and historic legitimacy to implement his ideas. Even worse: his leadership style weakens the entire system. That’s Roderick Macfarquhar in the new Merics Experts podcast. 

28 June 2016Review of MERICS China Dispute “The Xi Jinping challenge: Will top-down leadership achieve political stability in China?” with Richard McGregor, Roderick MacFarquhar, Sebastian Heilmann and Anthony Saich.

21 June 2016Michael Fuchs on Trump: „Unpredictability is not a foreign policy“ China is one of Donald Trump’s favourite punching bags. If elected to the White House, he wants to label China a “currency manipulator” and impose hefty tariffs on imports from China. Such talk makes Michael Fuchs of the Center for American Progress and a former advisor to Hillary Clinton rather uneasy. “Trump is unpredictable” he says in the new Merics Experts podcast. And he warns: “Unpredictability is not a foreign policy”. How much damage can Trump do to the complex Sino-American relationship? And is that relationship going to become more competitive no matter who enters the White House? 

9 June 2016With the right economic policies China could continue to grow at a rate of about five per cent per year for another decade says Arthur Kroeber of Gavecal Dragonomics, an independent research firm in Beijing. But the country would have to cut SOEs by up to a half and push through financial reforms. However, Xi Jingping’s economic policies lack clarity and direction. China still depends too much on stimulus measures and credit to keep the economy going. Little change is in the offing with the 19th party congress already looming large. 

6 June 2016Tensions on Chinese factory floors have been running high recently – because of non-payment of wages and because some industries have moved their investments to other parts of Asia. Labour relations are fraught and protests can potentially threaten social stability says Han Dongfang, founder of the NGO China Labour Bulletin and a former Tian’anmen activist now based in Hongkong. He is confident though that the government is looking for a long-term solution and seems willing to make collective workplace bargaining easier. In the long run, true trade union reform could be a game changer in China, says Han Dongfang.

26 May 2016Many non-governmental organisations are concerned about a new Chinese law that imposes tighter controls on international non-profit groups working in China. The law is seen as an attempt to further squeeze the space of civil society. It could affect not just NGOs but also cultural exchanges and business associations. But a lot of details are still unclear, says Shawn Shieh, deputy director of China Labour Bulletin, an NGO based in Hongkong. How draconian the law is going to be depends largely on its implementation – in China that is often a rather patchy process. 

24 May 2016 with Thomas EderTensions in the South China Sea could further escalate after a ruling by a UN tribunal expected within the next few weeks. The case over tiny rocks and reefs brought to the UN by the Philippines has far reaching implications. China claims almost all of the South China Sea and has already rejected the tribunal’s right to rule on these matters. Thomas Eder of Merics says should the UN court rule in favour of the Philippines, Beijing is likely to take provocative action to reassert its claims – like stepping up island building activities or declaring an air defense identification zone similar to the East China Sea. Europe should take note, says Eder, because the South China Sea is an important shipping route for the EU’s trade with Asia. Increasing tensions pose challenges that Europe cannot afford to ignore.

13 May 2016 with Daniel Leese; Questions by Ruth Kirchner50 years after the start of the Cultural Revolution Xi Jinping tries to reconnect to Chinas Maoist heritage. He won’t allow to mobilise the masses as Mao did, because he is afraid of losing control said Professor Daniel Leese in our MERICS Podcast. 

29. April 2016 mit Simon LangMit dem verlangsamten Wachstum in China ist die Zahl der Proteste und Streiks deutlich gestiegen. Allein in diesem Jahr gab es bereits rund 1.000 Streiks – vor allem im Süden des Landes. Aus Sorge um die soziale Stabilität gingen die Behörden in der Regel hart gegen Streikende vor, sagt Simon Lang, wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter bei MERICS. Die Proteste könnten aber auch das Reformprogramm der Regierung ausbremsen: Denn geplante Massenentlassungen in ineffizienten Staatsbetrieben könnten die sozialen Spannungen weiter verschärfen und die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt noch schwieriger machen. Vielen Arbeitern fehlten zudem die Qualifikationen für einen Neustart, sagt Lang: „Es ist fraglich ob man aus einem Stahlarbeiter einen Dienstleister oder Start-Uper machen kann.“ 

27.04.2016 mit Ekkehard RathgeberNirgendwo kaufen die Menschen so oft und so viel im Internet wie in China. Das Reich der Mitte ist der größte E-Commerce-Markt der Welt. Doch der Markt sei nichts für Leute mit schwachen Nerven, sagt Unternehmer Ekkehard Rathgeber, der seit 20 Jahren in China Geschäfte macht. Der Wettbewerb sei knallhart und der chinesische Konsument schwer einzuschätzen. Trotzdem sieht er Chancen auch für deutsche Firmen. Ekkehard Rathgeber über Chancen, Erfolge und Niederlagen in China – im neuen Merics Experts Podcast.

20 April 2016, with Yuen-ying ChanMedia freedom in China has suffered under president Xi Jinping. In the latest press freedom index of Reporters without Borders China ranks at the bottom of the list followed only by Syria, Turkmenistan, North Korea and Eritrea. These are hard times for journalists in China, says professor Yuen-ying Chan. She is the founding director of the Journalism and Media Studies Centre at Hongkong University. But she also argues that despite tight censorship and increased controls, there are still spaces for independent and investigative journalism in China. And in the long run there is a glimmer of hope: “China cannot impose draconian controls forever.” 

22. März 2016Ein Wachstum von jährlich 6,5 Prozent; eine Verdoppelung der Einkommen bis 2020, die Abschaffung der Armut – all das verspricht die chinesische Führung in ihrem 13. Fünfjahresplan. Extrem ehrgeizig, teils unrealistisch, nennt MERICS-Wirtschafts- und Finanzexpertin Sandra Heep diese Ziele. Eine Abkehr von der Politik staatlicher Großinvestitionen ist nicht wirklich zu erkennen: So will die Regierung in den nächsten fünf Jahren mindestens 50 neue Flughäfen bauen. Alte Politik also statt neuer Ideen? Gleichzeitig wird Innovation im neuen Fünfjahresplan großgeschrieben. Doch auch da stellt sich die Grundsatzfrage: Kann man Innovation und Strukturwandel über Fünfjahrespläne organisieren?

15. März 2016Selten stand ein Nationaler Volkskongress unter so strenger Zensur wie die diesjährige Jahrestagung des chinesischen Parlaments in der Großen Halle des Volkes. Chinesischen Journalisten wird genau vorgeschrieben, was sie berichten dürfen und was nicht. Doch sogar unter den Delegierten rege sich Widerstand gegen die strikten Kontrollen, sagt Kristin Shi-Kupfer, Leiterin des Forschungsbereichs Politik, Gesellschaft und Medien bei Merics. Zugleich müssten auch westliche Politiker, etwa Bundespräsident Joachim Gauck bei seiner China-Reise ab 19. März, die scharfen Medienkontrollen in China deutlich ansprechen.