Analysen Und Diskussionen Über China

May 30, 2017Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and independent journalists have played a vital role in raising awareness in China of the dangers of air pollution and other environmental challenges. Yet under the leadership of Xi Jinping, the climate for NGOs has become noticeably chillier, especially with the introduction of a new law earlier this year on overseas organizations. But “civil society still has an enormous role to play,” says Isabel Hilton, editor of China Dialogue, an environmental website that has offices in both London and Beijing. In the new MERICS Experts Podcast, she talks about the spaces for NGOs and the media in today’s China and how to navigate a tricky political environment.

24. Mai 2017China arbeitet mit Hochdruck am Aufbau eines umfassenden gesellschaftlichen Bonitätssystems. Damit soll das Verhalten von Unternehmen wie auch von Einzelpersonen erfasst und gesteuert werden. Für dieses „Social Credit System“ sammeln IT-Unternehmen und Behörden umfangreiche Daten über Bürger und Firmen und erstellen mithilfe von Algorithmen Bewertungen, die Einfluss auf das ganz alltägliche Leben haben können. Noch ist das System im Aufbau, aber für jeden einzelnen wie auch für in China tätige Unternehmen wird es weitreichende Folgen haben. Mirjam Meissner, Leiterin des Forschungsbereichs Wirtschaft und Technologie am MERICS, spricht in diesem Podcast über Big Data, Verhaltenssteuerung und IT-gestützten Autoritarismus.

February 28, 2017China’s official media like to criticize “hostile foreign forces” and “Western values” that purportedly undermine the country. Western institutions are equally singled out for their “inefficiency” in dealing with problems and crises. But do these arguments resonate with the Chinese public? Is there rising anti-Western nationalism in China? Those questions were tackled by three eminent China experts, Susan Shirk, Orville Schell and David Bandurski, on February 22nd at the MERICS “China Dispute” in Berlin. Nationalism was a handy tool for the Chinese government to rally support, they said, but liberal voices had not disappeared – despite stringent controls and strict censorship. You can listen to an edited version of the debate, moderated by MERICS researcher Kristin Shi-Kupfer, in our latest Merics Experts Podcast.

The „New Silk Road“ or „One Belt One Road Initiative“ launched by China’s President Xi Jinping in 2013 is unprecedented in scope and reach. China wants to spend some $900bn on infrastructure projects connecting the Middle Kingdom to other parts of Asia, Africa and Europe. This, Beijing hopes, will create new markets for Chinese products and provide contracts for Chinese companies. But some projects have turned into “red elephants”, others have clear strategic and military dimensions, says James Kynge, seasoned China-watcher and former FT bureau chief in Beijing. OBOR, he argues, is much more than Chinese-style globalization. Listen to James Kynge talking about China’s ambitions and the risks and opportunities of OBOR in the new Merics Experts Podcast.

20. Januar 2017Neue Krankenhäuser, moderne Geräte und eine Krankenversicherung für alle – viel hat sich verändert im chinesischen Gesundheitssystem. Der Arzt Eckehard Scharfschwerdt hat das miterlebt: 15 Jahre lang hat er auf dem Land in der Provinz Yunnan im Südwesten Chinas gearbeitet. „Die Verbesserungen sind für jeden sichtbar“, sagt er. Aber es gebe noch viel zu tun: Das Vertrauen in die Ärzte sei gering, unnötige Untersuchungen führten zur Verschwendung von Ressourcen und trotz Versicherung könne eine schwere Krankheit eine Familie immer noch zurück in die Armut stürzen. Zudem stelle der massive Anstieg von Wohlstandskrankheiten wie Bluthochdruck und Diabetes das Gesundheitssystem vor neue Herausforderungen. Eckehardt Scharfschwerdt im neuen Merics Experts Podcast.

Chinesische Auslandsinvestitionen haben 2016 erneut ein Rekordniveau erreicht. Das Investitionsvolumen stieg weltweit auf etwa 200 Milliarden US-Dollar (180 Mrd. Euro), dies entspricht einem Zuwachs von 40 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Die Europäische Union gehört weiterhin zu den beliebtesten Investitionsstandorten, angeführt von Deutschland. Rund 35 Mrd. Euro – ein Plus von 77 Prozent – flossen im vergangenen Jahr in europäische Länder, davon über 11 Mrd. Euro nach Deutschland.Mikko Huotari, Autor des MERICS Paper on China: Chinesische Investitionen in Europa erreichen neues Rekordniveau und befeuern Debatte über Risiken, erklärt, was Europa für chinesische Investoren so attraktiv macht und wie die politischen Debatten über chinesische Investitionen innerhalb Europas zunehmend kritischer werden. Er warnt davor, die Wachstumszahlen chinesischer Investitionen im letzten Jahr auch in die Zukunft zu projizieren. Stattdessen könnte der chinesische Expansionskurs schon bald deutlich an Fahrt verlieren.

China has launched a high-tech revolution: Beijing has devised an industrial masterplan named "Made in China 2025" and is investing billions to turn China into one of the leading industrial countries by 2049.According to the plan, the domestic market share of Chinese suppliers for "basic core components and important basic materials" is intended to increase to 70 per cent by 2025.China strives for market leadership in main growth areas for a large number of industrial countries. Information technology, computerised machines, robots, energy-saving vehicles, medical devices as well as high-tech equipment for aerospace technology, maritime and rail transport are in the focus of the major industrial revamp called "Made in China 2025."In this podcast interview, the author of the latest MERICS Paper on China, Jost Wübbeke, explains how China's ambitious strategy is starting to bear fruit. Industrial countries like Germany and the United States have to be prepared for strong compet

12 October 2016, with Kevin RuddWhat does China really want with its foreign policy? Is there a grand strategy for Xi Jinping’s new multilateralism? And is China’s „One Belt, One Road“ initiative maybe less about geopolitics and more of an encounter with the complex realities in some of the most unstable countries in the world? Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd has met Xi Jinping several times and last week shared his observations with MERICS. The experienced diplomat, politician and fluent Mandarin speaker gave a lecture at the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and talked to MERICS Director Sebastian Heilmann. Listen to an edited version of the event in our new MERICS Experts podcast.

5 October 2016, with Zhang JiepingThese are tough times for independent media in China: Censorship and controls have increased considerably in recent years. The pressure is also felt in Hongkong despite the territory’s greater freedoms. Still, several media start-ups have sprung up in Hongkong recently. One of the biggest is the online platform “Initium”. Within a year it has attracted more than two million regular readers although the site quickly got blocked on the mainland. Chief Editor Zhang Jieping says there’s a huge appetite for independent journalism. In the new Merics Experts podcast she talks about how to survive in a challenging political environment while sticking to her journalistic principles.

2. September 2016, mit Mikko HuotariBeim G20-Gipfel in Hangzhou soll globales Wachstum gefördert werden. Gastgeber China setzt dabei auf globale Infrastrukturinvestitionen. Auch aus Eigeninteresse, sagt Mikko Huotari, Leiter des Programmbereichs Internationale Beziehungen bei Merics. Die G20, so Pekings Hoffnung, könnten der chinesischen Seidenstraßen-Initiative den Ritterschlag geben. Aber auch Chinas Reform-Agenda rückt in den Fokus: „Glaubwürdigkeit als G20-Führungskraft kann Peking nur erlangen, wenn es glaubwürdig an den Reformen zuhause weiterarbeitet.“ Mikko Huotari im Merics Experts Podcast.

4 August 2016, with Richard McGregorFor all its problems, China is an incredibly successful country and still has a lot of growth potential, says Richard McGregor, visiting fellow at George Washington University. All gloomy scenarios about economic or political collapse have proved wrong so far. So, what if Xi Jinping succeeds in restructuring the economy and strengthening the Communist Party? China would emerge as a much more powerful country, says McGregor. However, there’s nothing in the party’s DNA that suggests China would be more accommodating internationally or more liberal domestically. That’s Richard McGregor in the latest Merics Experts podcast. 

26 July 2016, with You JiXi Jinping has used military reforms to strengthen his command over the People’s Liberation Army. And he’s using personal connections, some dating back to his childhood years, to fill central positions within the military, says professor You Ji of Macau University. On strategy, Xi is moving away from his predecessors’ approach. China is now preparing to project power well beyond its borders, catch up with the U.S. and achieve “Great Power Status” built upon military strength. That’s You Ji in the latest Merics Experts podcast.

22 July 2016, with Victor ShihFor years China was led by consensus – factions in the upper echelons of power were carefully calibrated to keep a balance. But with Xi Jinping all that has changed, says Victor Shih of the University of California, San Diego. Since Xi’s faction within the Central Committee is still rather small, he established a number of new leading small groups to strengthen his influence on policy making. At the 19th party congress next year Xi could now try to shrink the size of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee to obtain absolute power within the CCP. That’s Victor Shih in the latest Merics Experts Podcast.

7 July 2016, with Barry NaughtonExpectations for market oriented reforms were running high after the CCP’s 3rd plenum in 2013. But three years on Barry Naughton of the University of California, San Diego, is disappointed: Reform plans have come to nothing; economic problems got worse; the centralization of power has led to paralysis among bureaucrats. Xi Jinping is “political down to his fingernails” but not an economic thinker, says Naughton: “Xi is attached to the long term objective of reform but has only the weakest of attachments to the practical measures that need to be taken to get there.” Now the leadership could read the Brexit vote as another indication that global free markets and institutions are unreliable and unattractive. That’s Barry Naughton in the new Merics Experts podcast.

01.07.2016The speed with which Xi Jinping has introduced stronger controls on society has surprised many China watchers. The Xi administration has been “extraordinarily successful” in controlling and shaping political communication especially online says Anthony Saich of Harvard Kennedy School: “If I was an authoritarian leader somewhere else in the world, I would want to learn lessons from China.” Moreover, laws constraining foreign NGOs while encouraging domestic charity work for causes close to the CCP’s priorities tend to further reduce space for association and new ideas. 

Xi Jinping has centralized power in China to unprecedented levels: he has sidelined both the prime minister and the state council and is trying to control everything himself says distinguished Harvard historian Roderick MacFarquhar. Xi might have – like Mao Zedong long before him - a vision and a sense of direction for China but he lacks the authority and historic legitimacy to implement his ideas. Even worse: his leadership style weakens the entire system. That’s Roderick Macfarquhar in the new Merics Experts podcast. 

28 June 2016Review of MERICS China Dispute “The Xi Jinping challenge: Will top-down leadership achieve political stability in China?” with Richard McGregor, Roderick MacFarquhar, Sebastian Heilmann and Anthony Saich.

21 June 2016Michael Fuchs on Trump: „Unpredictability is not a foreign policy“ China is one of Donald Trump’s favourite punching bags. If elected to the White House, he wants to label China a “currency manipulator” and impose hefty tariffs on imports from China. Such talk makes Michael Fuchs of the Center for American Progress and a former advisor to Hillary Clinton rather uneasy. “Trump is unpredictable” he says in the new Merics Experts podcast. And he warns: “Unpredictability is not a foreign policy”. How much damage can Trump do to the complex Sino-American relationship? And is that relationship going to become more competitive no matter who enters the White House? 

9 June 2016With the right economic policies China could continue to grow at a rate of about five per cent per year for another decade says Arthur Kroeber of Gavecal Dragonomics, an independent research firm in Beijing. But the country would have to cut SOEs by up to a half and push through financial reforms. However, Xi Jingping’s economic policies lack clarity and direction. China still depends too much on stimulus measures and credit to keep the economy going. Little change is in the offing with the 19th party congress already looming large. 

6 June 2016Tensions on Chinese factory floors have been running high recently – because of non-payment of wages and because some industries have moved their investments to other parts of Asia. Labour relations are fraught and protests can potentially threaten social stability says Han Dongfang, founder of the NGO China Labour Bulletin and a former Tian’anmen activist now based in Hongkong. He is confident though that the government is looking for a long-term solution and seems willing to make collective workplace bargaining easier. In the long run, true trade union reform could be a game changer in China, says Han Dongfang.